Research line:

Resilient cities

This research line seeks to understand how Chilean cities are evolving regarding pollution, extreme events, vulnerability, resilience, and governance. It focuses on how the dynamics of these processes are perceived at the human scale and exacerbated by social inequality.

Looking ahead to the 2024-2025 period, this research line is poised to make significant strides. It will ambitiously deepen the evaluation and quantification of the factors driving city changes, particularly in the context of a changing climate.

The line’s research focuses on urban governance, based on the integrated climate governance elements proposed by the CR2, and the operationalization of the integrated resilience model, which considers the link between urban climate and human health, the nexus between food, water, and energy, and compound risks at the urban scale.

The line also seeks to contribute to the diagnosis of national carbon budgets by refining national and Latin American inventories and supporting the first estimation of carbon flows in Chilean socio-ecological systems by coupling emissions from the transport, industry, energy, mining, and residential sectors.

This research, together with that on energy poverty, allows the line to deepen its understanding of the barriers limiting the implementation of just and transformative transitions in different territories.

Review the research achievements of this line in our institutional report.

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Título	Autores	Línea de Investigación	Año	DOI	Abstract	Revista	ISSN	Acceso	Páginas	Volumen	Index	Key Words
Estimation of atmospheric total organic carbon (TOC) – paving the path towards carbon budget closure	Yang, Mingxi; Fleming, Zoë L.	Ciudades Resilientes	2019.0	10.5194/acp-19-459-2019	The atmosphere contains a rich variety of reactive organic compounds, including gaseous volatile organic carbon (VOCs), carbonaceous aerosols, and other organic compounds at varying volatility. Here we present a novel and simple approach to measure atmospheric non-methane total organic carbon (TOC) based on catalytic oxidation of organics in bulk air to carbon dioxide. This method shows little sensitivity towards humidity and near 100% oxidation efficiencies for all VOCs tested. We estimate a best-case hourly precision of 8 ppbC during times of low ambient variability in carbon dioxide, methane, and carbon monoxide (CO). As proof of concept of this approach, we show measurements of TOCCCO during August–September 2016 from a coastal city in the southwest United Kingdom. TOCCCO was substantially elevated during the day on weekdays (occasionally over 2 ppm C) as a result of local anthropogenic activity. On weekends and holidays, with a mean (standard error) of 102 (8) ppb C, TOCCCO was lower and showed much less diurnal variability. TOCCCO was significantly lower when winds were coming off the Atlantic Ocean than when winds were coming off land if we exclude the weekday daytime. By subtracting the estimated CO from TOCCCO, we constrain the mean (uncertainty) TOC in Atlantic-dominated air masses to be around 23 ( 8) ppbC during this period. A proton-transfer-reaction mass spectrometer (PTR-MS) was deployed at the same time, detecting a large range of organic compounds (oxygenated VOCs, biogenic VOCs, aromatics, dimethyl sulfide). The total speciated VOCs from the PTRMS, denoted here as Sum(VOC), amounted to a mean (uncertainty) of 12 ( 3) ppbC in marine air. Possible contributions from a number of known organic compounds present in marine air that were not detected by the PTR-MS are assessed within the context of the TOC budget. Finally, we note that the use of a short, heated sample tube can improve the transmission of organics to the analyzer, while operating our system alternately with and without a particle filter should enable a better separation of semi-volatile and particulate organics from the VOCs within the TOC budget. Future concurrent measurements of TOC, CO, and a more comprehensive range of speciated VOCs would enable a better characterization and understanding of the atmospheric organic carbon budget.	Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics	1680-7324	https://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/19/459/2019/	459-471	19.0	Thomson Reuters ISI	aerosol, atmospheric chemistry, carbon budget, estimation method, human activity, oxidation, total organic carbon, volatile organic compound, united kingdom
Landscape evolution and the environmental context of human occupation of the southern pampa del tamarugal, Atacama Desert, Chile	Workman, T. Race; Rech, Jason A.; Gayó, Eugenia M.; Santoro, Calogero M.; Ugalde, Paula C.; De Pol-Holz, Ricardo; Capriles, Jose M.; Latorre, Claudio	Ciudades Resilientes	2020.0	10.1016/j.quascirev.2020.106502	As with most living organisms, human populations respond to climatic, environmental, and population pressures by transforming their range and subsistence strategies over space and time. An understanding of human ecology can be gained when the archaeological record is placed within the context of dynamic landscape changes and alterations in natural resource availability. We reconstructed the landscape evolution of the Quebrada Maní fan complex, situated along the west-facing slope of the Central Andes in the hyperarid core of the Atacama Desert, an area that contains an archaeological record that spans almost 13,000 years. Surficial geologic mapping and dating of three 2–12 km2 study sites, in conjunction with archaeological records and analysis of remotely sensed data for the ∼400 km2 fan complex, was conducted to reconstruct the landscape evolution and the way of life of Paleoindian (ca. 12.8–11.5 ka) and early/late Formative (ca 2.5 to 0.7 ka) social groups. Just prior to any known human occupation, a large pluvial event in the high Andes, regionally referred to as CAPE I, impacted the Quebrada Maní fan complex from ca.18–16.5 ka. During CAPE I, the Maní fan complex was dominated by perennial stream systems that deposited well-sorted conglomerates in the upper reaches of the fan (Unit T2) and perennial wetlands (Unit B1). This pluvial period was followed by the onset of an extreme drought sometime after 15 ka, but before 13 ka, when wetlands desiccated and the distal reaches of the fan deflated. Sand sheets and sand dunes were deposited across broad reaches of the landscape and Quebrada Maní incised 3–5 m into its floodplain. This drought had profound implications for the distribution of natural resources during the subsequent pluvial event (CAPE II) that ensued from ca. 12.5–9.5 ka. Incision along the upper reaches of the fan caused a more restricted floodplain and allowed the deposition of extensive wetlands along the more distal central reaches of the fan where groundwater emerged. Paleoindian residential open-air camps were placed in these areas. Wetlands were replaced by a tree-covered floodplain during the latter portion of this pluvial event (ca. 10.5–9 ka). We found no archaeological evidence for human occupations between ∼8–2.5 ka, suggesting a lack of natural resources and/or very low hunter-gatherer population densities. During this time, Quebrada Maní incised up to 8 m into the floodplain. Mudflow deposition – typical of the present-day fan complex – initiated around 2.5 ka, likely responding to an increase in precipitation. This triggered a re-population of the fan surface by Formative agricultural groups that irrigated and extensively farmed these floodplains. By the end of the Formative, these socio-cultural groups became increasingly vulnerable to climatic changes as cut-and-fill cycles in the drainage necessitated major infrastructure adjustments, until the technologies and social-cultural convention of the epoch could not cope with environmental change and investments were abandoned by ∼0.8 ka.	Quaternary Science Reviews	02773791	https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0277379120304649	106502	243.0	Thomson Reuters ISI	agricultural robots, banks (bodies of water), deposition, drought, ecology, employment, environmental technology, floods, groundwater, investments, natural resources, population statistics, wetlands, atacama desert , chile, cultural conventions, environmental change, environmental contexts, landscape evolutions, population densities, remotely sensed data, resource availability, biology, archaeological evidence, climate change, drought, floodplain, hunter-gatherer, landscape change, landscape evolution, natural resource, occupation, population density, precipitation (climatology), reconstruction, satellite data, wetland, andes, atacama desert, chile
Anthropogenic Perturbations to the Atmospheric Molybdenum Cycle	Wong, Michelle Y.; Rathod, Sagar D.; Marino, Roxanne; Li, Longlei; Howarth, Robert W.; Alastuey, Andres; Alaimo, Maria Grazia; Barraza, Francisco; Carneiro, Manuel Castro; Chellam, Shankararaman; Chen, Yu‐Cheng; Cohen, David D.; Connelly, David; Dongarra, Gaetano; Gómez, Darió; Hand, Jenny; Harrison, R. M.; Hopke, Philip K.; Hueglin, Christoph; Kuang, Yuan‐wen; Lambert, Fabrice; Liang, James; Losno, Remi; Maenhaut, Willy; Milando, Chad; Monteiro, Maria Inês Couto; Morera‐Gómez, Yasser; Querol, Xavier; Rodríguez, Sergio; Smichowski, Patricia; Varrica, Daniela; Xiao, Yi‐hua; Xu, Yangjunjie; Mahowald, Natalie M.	Ciudades Resilientes	2021.0	10.1029/2020GB006787	Molybdenum (Mo) is a key cofactor in enzymes used for nitrogen (N) fixation and nitrate reduction, and the low availability of Mo can constrain N inputs, affecting ecosystem productivity. Natural atmospheric Mo aerosolization and deposition from sources such as desert dust, sea-salt spray, and volcanoes can affect ecosystem function across long timescales, but anthropogenic activities such as combustion, motor vehicles, and agricultural dust have accelerated the natural Mo cycle. Here we combined a synthesis of global atmospheric concentration observations and modeling to identify and estimate anthropogenic sources of atmospheric Mo. To project the impact of atmospheric Mo on terrestrial ecosystems, we synthesized soil Mo data and estimated the global distribution of soil Mo using two approaches to calculate turnover times. We estimated global emissions of atmospheric Mo in aerosols (<10 μm in diameter) to be 23 Gg Mo yr−1, with 40%–75% from anthropogenic sources. We approximated that for the top meter of soil, Mo turnover times range between 1,000 and 1,000,000 years. In some industrialized regions, anthropogenic inputs have enhanced Mo deposition 100-fold, lowering the soil Mo turnover time considerably. Our synthesis of global observational data, modeling, and a mass balance comparison with riverine Mo exports suggest that anthropogenic activity has greatly accelerated the Mo cycle, with potential to influence N-limited ecosystems.	Global Biogeochemical Cycles	0886-6236, 1944-9224	https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2020GB006787		35.0	Thomson Reuters ISI	concentration (composition), ecosystem function, estimation method, human activity, mass balance, molybdenum, nitrate, nitrogen, nitrogen fixation
The effect of climate change on electricity expenditures in Massachusetts	Véliz, Karina D.; Kaufmann, Robert K.; Cleveland, Cutler J.; Stoner, Anne M.K.	Ciudades Resilientes	2017.0	10.1016/j.enpol.2017.03.016	Climate change affects consumer expenditures by altering the consumption of and price for electricity. Previous analyses focus solely on the former, which implicitly assumes that climate-induced changes in consumption do not affect price. But this assumption is untenable because a shift in demand alters quantity and price at equilibrium. Here we present the first empirical estimates for the effect of climate change on electricity prices. Translated through the merit order dispatch of existing capacity for generating electricity, climate-induced changes in daily and monthly patterns of electricity consumption cause non-linear changes in electricity prices. A 2 °C increase in global mean temperature increases the prices for and consumption of electricity in Massachusetts USA, such that the average household’s annual expenditures on electricity increase by about 12%. Commercial customers incur a 9% increase. These increases are caused largely by higher prices for electricity, whose impacts on expenditures are 1.3 and 3.6 fold larger than changes in residential and commercial consumption, respectively. This suggests that previous empirical studies understate the effects of climate change on electricity expenditures and that policy may be needed to ensure that the market generates investments in peaking capacity to satisfy climate-driven changes in summer-time consumption.	Energy Policy	0301-4215	http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S030142151730157X	1-11	106	Thomson Reuters ISI	costs, electric power utilization, adaptation, annual expenditure, commercial customers, consumer expenditure, electricity expenditures, electricity prices, electricity-consumption, global-mean temperature, climate change, climate change, climate effect, electricity generation, electricity supply, energy use, price determination, massachusetts, united states
Andean caravan ceremonialism in the lowlands of the Atacama Desert: The Cruces de Molinos archaeological site, northern Chile	Valenzuela, Daniela; Cartajena, Isabel; Santoro, Calogero M.; Castro, Victoria; Gayo, Eugenia M.	Ciudades Resilientes	2018.0	10.1016/j.quaint.2018.09.016	Camelid caravans have played a key role in the complex systems of interregional social interaction that characterizes Andean history. In the northernmost region of Chile, the most frequent archaeological indicators of these caravan systems are trails and rock art images. Cruces de Molinos (LL-43), a rock art site in the Lluta valley, 1100 masl, 40 km from the Pacific littoral, expands the ceremonial role of rock art sites, materialized, not only as regards the iconography portrayed and alluding to these practices, but also in terms of articulated carcass remains and detached anatomical units of camelids, intentionally deposited in a cache beneath one of the engraved blocks. This paper analyzes the site considering the visual imagery, spatial location, archaeological deposits and features associated with rock art. Based on the predominance of camelid and caravan motifs in rock art images, the extraordinary setting and location of the site on the valley's upper slopes, which is far removed from local settlements, but closely connected with a llama caravan trade network linking the chaupiyunga ecozone with the highlands (sierra and Altiplano ecozones), we suggest that Cruces de Molinos was not a rest stop for caravanners, but a ceremonial place, and not for local farmers, but for highland herders. According to seven accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) dates that place the occupation between cal. 1060–1190 CE in the Late Intermediate period.	Quaternary International	10406182	https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S1040618218301101		inpress	Thomson Reuters ISI	archaeological evidence, iconography, mammal, rock art, settlement history, spatiotemporal analysis, atacama desert, chile, camelidae, lama (mammal)
Overcoming energy poverty through micro-grids: An integrated framework for resilient, participatory sociotechnical transitions	Valencia, Felipe; Billi, Marco; Urquiza, Anahí	Ciudades Resilientes; Gobernanza e Interfaz Ciencia y Política	2021.0	10.1016/j.erss.2021.102030	Nowadays, the sustainability of micro-grids has received much attention in the research community since micro-grids are becoming an appealing alternative to provide clean energy access to rural communities, and by this token, contribute to overcome energy poverty. The aim of this paper was to investigate the sustainability of micro-grids through the analysis of their resilience. In this regard, an integrated framework was developed combining socio-technical transitions with socio-ecological resilience concepts. This allows to pay attention at once to two dimensions of micro-grid sustainability: (i) the ability of the micro-grid to effectively transform the relationship between community, energy, and territory to make it more sustainable in economic, social and environmental terms; (ii) the sustainability of the micro-grid itself, namely, its ability to endure, adapt to and recover from changes in contextual factors which may limit its operativity over time. Methodological guidelines are offered for the participatory co-construction and monitoring of the micro-grid and its monitoring, supporting both dimensions. To illustrate our proposal, the micro-grid installed in Huatacondo, north of Chile, was used as test-bed.	Energy Research & Social Science	22146296	https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S2214629621001237	102030	75.0	Thomson Reuters ISI	chile, energy poverty, micro-grids, participatory co-construction, socio-ecological resilience, socio-technical transitions, sustainability
Overcoming energy poverty through micro-grids: An integrated framework for resilient, participatory sociotechnical transitions	Valencia, Felipe; Billi, Marco; Urquiza, Anahí	Ciudades Resilientes; Gobernanza e Interfaz Ciencia y Política	2021.0	10.1016/j.erss.2021.102030	Nowadays, the sustainability of micro-grids has received much attention in the research community since micro-grids are becoming an appealing alternative to provide clean energy access to rural communities, and by this token, contribute to overcome energy poverty. The aim of this paper was to investigate the sustainability of micro-grids through the analysis of their resilience. In this regard, an integrated framework was developed combining socio-technical transitions with socio-ecological resilience concepts. This allows to pay attention at once to two dimensions of micro-grid sustainability: (i) the ability of the micro-grid to effectively transform the relationship between community, energy, and territory to make it more sustainable in economic, social and environmental terms; (ii) the sustainability of the micro-grid itself, namely, its ability to endure, adapt to and recover from changes in contextual factors which may limit its operativity over time. Methodological guidelines are offered for the participatory co-construction and monitoring of the micro-grid and its monitoring, supporting both dimensions. To illustrate our proposal, the micro-grid installed in Huatacondo, north of Chile, was used as test-bed.	Energy Research & Social Science	22146296	https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S2214629621001237	102030	75.0	Thomson Reuters ISI	chile, energy poverty, micro-grids, participatory co-construction, socio-ecological resilience, socio-technical transitions, sustainability
Long-Term Exposure to Fine and Coarse Particulate Matter and COVID-19 Incidence and Mortality Rate in Chile during 2020	Valdés Salgado, Macarena; Smith, Pamela; Opazo, Mariel A.; Huneeus, Nicolás	Ciudades Resilientes	2021.0	10.3390/ijerph18147409	Background: Several countries have documented the relationship between long-term exposure to air pollutants and epidemiological indicators of the COVID-19 pandemic, such as incidence and mortality. This study aims to explore the association between air pollutants, such as PM2.5 and PM10, and the incidence and mortality rates of COVID-19 during 2020. Methods: The incidence and mortality rates were estimated using the COVID-19 cases and deaths from the Chilean Ministry of Science, and the population size was obtained from the Chilean Institute of Statistics. A chemistry transport model was used to estimate the annual mean surface concentration of PM2.5 and PM10 in a period before the current pandemic. Negative binomial regressions were used to associate the epidemiological information with pollutant concentrations while considering demographic and social confounders. Results: For each microgram per cubic meter, the incidence rate increased by 1.3% regarding PM2.5 and 0.9% regarding PM10. There was no statistically significant relationship between the COVID-19 mortality rate and PM2.5 or PM10. Conclusions: The adjusted regression models showed that the COVID-19 incidence rate was significantly associated with chronic exposure to PM2.5 and PM10, even after adjusting for other variables.	International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health	1660-4601	https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/18/14/7409	7409	18.0	Thomson Reuters ISI	covid-19, environmental risk, health impact, health risk, mortality, particulate matter, public health, air pollution, article, chile, climate, concentration (parameter), controlled study, coronavirus disease 2019, demography, environmental indicator, epidemiological data, human, incidence, long term exposure, major clinical study, mortality rate, pandemic, pm10 exposure, pm2.5 exposure, population size, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2, social aspect, south america, adverse event, air pollutant, air pollution, environmental exposure, epidemiology, incidence, mortality, particulate matter, south america, sars coronavirus, air pollutants, air pollution, chile, covid-19, environmental exposure, humans, incidence, mortality, pandemics, particulate matter, sars-cov-2
Water markets and social–ecological resilience to water stress in the context of climate change: an analysis of the Limarí Basin, Chile	Urquiza, Anahí; Billi, Marco	Ciudades Resilientes	2018.0	10.1007/s10668-018-0271-3	The paper proposes an analysis of the social–ecological resilience of the Limarí Basin, an agriculture-intensive dryland in the north of Chile, featuring one of the most innovative market-based water managements and the most active water rights market in the country, but concurrently affected by an ongoing water stress situation. The Chilean water market, one of the main examples of the application of neoliberal policies in water management, has received mixed appraisals although, at present, few empirical studies evaluate the social and environmental conditions associated with their operation. This paper, on the contrary, maintains the necessity to assess the capacity of market-based models to face situations of water stress, particularly since mega-drought phenomena are projected to become a recurring and increasing problem during the following decades because of climate change. The study offers a mixed bottom-up and top-down qualitative empirical analysis of how the Chilean water market operates, providing relevant insights into four dimensions of the social–ecological resilience of the watershed: redundancy, diversity and flexibility; connectivity, collaboration and collective action; social–ecological memory and learning; self-organization and governance of system changes. The conclusion is that water scarcity is self-produced: despite the flexibility provided by market-based water management, the combined effect of strong deregulation, of the absence of territorial planning and integrated management of water resources, and of short-term attitudes and generalized mistrust, has led the system to the critical situation it is now facing.	Environment, Development and Sustainability	1387-585X, 1573-2975	http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10668-018-0271-3		inpress	Thomson Reuters ISI	bottom-up approach, climate change, empirical analysis, environmental conditions, governance approach, innovation, qualitative analysis, self organization, territorial planning, top-down approach, water industry, water management, water planning, water stress, chile
Participatory Energy Transitions as Boundary Objects: The Case of Chile's Energía2050	Urquiza, Anahí; Amigo, Catalina; Billi, Marco; Espinosa, Patricio	Ciudades Resilientes	2018.0	10.3389/fenrg.2018.00134	This paper analyzes the use of “participatory futures” within the context of energy transition, paying special attention to the case of Chile's long-term energy policy. Our main aim is to question the role of “participation” in such a context and particularly, to decouple the operative function of participation from its normative function. Structurally, we argue that the construction of a joint vision of desired energy futures must be understood as a deliberate attempt at governing the energy transition by way of governing the expectations of the actors and systems involved in it. Participatory approaches can promote the co-construction of such energy futures in the form of a boundary-object, able to resonate with and provide a common reference to the actors participating in its creation. On the other hand, participatory approaches can also be a way to make transitions more democratic, subjecting it to a broader influence and control from the citizenship. These two functions of “participation” are always potentially at odds with one another. Democratizing the transition, in fact, would require producing plural, dynamical imaginaries that are responsive and accountable to the public. On the contrary, the need to make transitions governable may close-up such imaginaries and narrow-down the participatory efforts to foster their normalization and acceptability on the part of the most influential actors in the self-government of the transition. To refine and exemplify our proposal, we perform a qualitative, exploratory case study of Chile's E2050 energy policy. Our findings show that “participation” may indeed have been used in the case to align partially conflicting expectations around a collectively-defined boundary object which may then act as a form of contextual, anticipatory and polycentric governance of the transition. However, from a democratic perspective, E2050 appears as a tokenization of the public in support of a pre-eminently technical and monolithic vision enacted by the Energy Ministry and the Consultative Committee. Within this context, the actual influence of the public on the policy and the possibility for political contestation are much more questionable.	Frontiers in Energy Research	2296-598X	https://www.frontiersin.org/article/10.3389/fenrg.2018.00134/full		6	Thomson Reuters ISI	energy policy, boundary objects, chile, deliberative democracy, energy transitions, polycentric governance, public participation, public policy

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Center for Climate and Resilience Research – CR2