{"id":19301,"date":"2020-12-09T10:43:57","date_gmt":"2020-12-09T13:43:57","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.cr2.cl\/eng\/?p=19301"},"modified":"2021-01-27T10:49:23","modified_gmt":"2021-01-27T13:49:23","slug":"climate-change-temperature-analysis-shows-un-goals-within-reach-bbc","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.cr2.cl\/eng\/climate-change-temperature-analysis-shows-un-goals-within-reach-bbc\/","title":{"rendered":"Climate change: Temperature analysis shows UN goals \u2018within reach\u2019 (BBC)"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"css-uf6wea-RichTextComponentWrapper e1xue1i83\" data-component=\"text-block\">\n<div class=\"css-83cqas-RichTextContainer e5tfeyi2\">\n<p><b class=\"css-14iz86j-BoldText e5tfeyi0\">A new analysis, seen by the BBC, suggests the goals of the UN Paris climate agreement are getting &#8220;within reach.&#8221;<\/b><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"css-uf6wea-RichTextComponentWrapper e1xue1i83\" data-component=\"text-block\">\n<div class=\"css-83cqas-RichTextContainer e5tfeyi2\">\n<p>By Matt McGrath<\/p>\n<p>The\u00a0<a class=\"css-yidnqd-InlineLink e1no5rhv0\" href=\"https:\/\/climateactiontracker.org\/\">Climate Action Tracker<\/a>\u00a0group looked at new climate promises from China and other nations, along with the carbon plans of US President-elect Joe Biden.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"css-uf6wea-RichTextComponentWrapper e1xue1i83\" data-component=\"text-block\">\n<div class=\"css-83cqas-RichTextContainer e5tfeyi2\">\n<p>These commitments would mean the rise in world temperatures could be held to 2.1C by the end of this century.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"css-uf6wea-RichTextComponentWrapper e1xue1i83\" data-component=\"text-block\">\n<div class=\"css-83cqas-RichTextContainer e5tfeyi2\">\n<p>Previous estimates indicated up to 3C of heating, with disastrous impacts.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"css-uf6wea-RichTextComponentWrapper e1xue1i83\" data-component=\"text-block\">\n<div class=\"css-83cqas-RichTextContainer e5tfeyi2\">\n<p>But the experts are worried the long-term optimism is not matched by short-term plans to cut CO2.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"css-uf6wea-RichTextComponentWrapper e1xue1i83\" data-component=\"unordered-list-block\">\n<div class=\"css-83cqas-RichTextContainer e5tfeyi2\">\n<div class=\"css-1pzprxn-BulletListContainer e5tfeyi3\">\n<ul role=\"list\">\n<li><a class=\"css-yidnqd-InlineLink e1no5rhv0\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bbc.co.uk\/news\/election-us-2020-55046714\">John Kerry named as Biden\u2019s climate tsar<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"css-yidnqd-InlineLink e1no5rhv0\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bbc.co.uk\/news\/science-environment-55018581\">Covid pandemic has little impact on rise in CO2<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a class=\"css-yidnqd-InlineLink e1no5rhv0\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bbc.co.uk\/news\/science-environment-55020558\">Climate pledge on gas boilers for 2023 \u2018vanishes\u2019<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"css-uf6wea-RichTextComponentWrapper e1xue1i83\" data-component=\"text-block\">\n<div class=\"css-83cqas-RichTextContainer e5tfeyi2\">\n<p>For more than a decade, researchers from the Climate Action Tracker have kept a close eye on what countries\u2019 collective carbon-cutting pledges mean for our warming world.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"css-uf6wea-RichTextComponentWrapper e1xue1i83\" data-component=\"text-block\">\n<div class=\"css-83cqas-RichTextContainer e5tfeyi2\">\n<p>After the failed Copenhagen summit in 2009, the group estimated that global temperatures would rise by 3.5C by the end of this century.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"css-18mjolk-ComponentWrapper e1xue1i80\" data-component=\"image-block\">\n<figure class=\"css-1759m9z-StyledFigure e34k3c20\">\n<div class=\"css-kwaqyc-StyledFigureContainer e34k3c22\"><span class=\"css-130qf4a-Placeholder e16icw910\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"css-evoj7m-Image ee0ct7c0 td-animation-stack-type0-1\" src=\"https:\/\/c.files.bbci.co.uk\/FAA4\/production\/_115746146_climate-nc.png\" srcset=\"https:\/\/ichef.bbci.co.uk\/news\/240\/cpsprodpb\/FAA4\/production\/_115746146_climate-nc.png 240w, https:\/\/ichef.bbci.co.uk\/news\/320\/cpsprodpb\/FAA4\/production\/_115746146_climate-nc.png 320w, https:\/\/ichef.bbci.co.uk\/news\/480\/cpsprodpb\/FAA4\/production\/_115746146_climate-nc.png 480w, https:\/\/ichef.bbci.co.uk\/news\/624\/cpsprodpb\/FAA4\/production\/_115746146_climate-nc.png 624w, https:\/\/ichef.bbci.co.uk\/news\/800\/cpsprodpb\/FAA4\/production\/_115746146_climate-nc.png 800w, https:\/\/ichef.bbci.co.uk\/news\/976\/cpsprodpb\/FAA4\/production\/_115746146_climate-nc.png 976w\" alt=\"Infographic\" width=\"2666\" height=\"1875\" \/><\/span><\/div>\n<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"css-uf6wea-RichTextComponentWrapper e1xue1i83\" data-component=\"text-block\">\n<div class=\"css-83cqas-RichTextContainer e5tfeyi2\">\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>But the creation in 2015 of the Paris climate agreement, which was designed to avoid dangerous warming of the Earth, made a considerable impact. As a result of the international deal, countries slowly started to switch away from fossil fuels.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"css-uf6wea-RichTextComponentWrapper e1xue1i83\" data-component=\"text-block\">\n<div class=\"css-83cqas-RichTextContainer e5tfeyi2\">\n<p>In September this year, the group concluded that the world was heading for warming of around 2.7C by 2100.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"css-uf6wea-RichTextComponentWrapper e1xue1i83\" data-component=\"text-block\">\n<div class=\"css-83cqas-RichTextContainer e5tfeyi2\">\n<p>This figure was still far above the 2C goal contained in the wording of the Paris pact, and nowhere near the more challenging 1.5C target that\u00a0<a class=\"css-yidnqd-InlineLink e1no5rhv0\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bbc.co.uk\/news\/science-environment-45775309\">scientists endorsed as the threshold to destructive warming in 2018<\/a>.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"css-uf6wea-RichTextComponentWrapper e1xue1i83\" data-component=\"text-block\">\n<div class=\"css-83cqas-RichTextContainer e5tfeyi2\">\n<p>Their new \u00aboptimistic analysis\u00bb now suggests a rise of 2.1C by 2100.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"css-mysbf6-ComponentWrapper-CrossheadComponentWrapper e1xue1i84\" data-component=\"crosshead-block\">\n<h5 class=\"css-1jlqpzd-StyledHeading e1fj1fc10\"><strong>So what\u2019s really changed?<\/strong><\/h5>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"css-uf6wea-RichTextComponentWrapper e1xue1i83\" data-component=\"text-block\">\n<div class=\"css-83cqas-RichTextContainer e5tfeyi2\">\n<p>The past three months have seen some key developments.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"css-uf6wea-RichTextComponentWrapper e1xue1i83\" data-component=\"text-block\">\n<div class=\"css-83cqas-RichTextContainer e5tfeyi2\">\n<p>In September, China\u2019s President Xi Jinping\u00a0<a class=\"css-yidnqd-InlineLink e1no5rhv0\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bbc.co.uk\/news\/science-environment-54256826\">told the UN that his country will reach net zero emissions by 2060<\/a>, and that its emissions will peak before 2030. According to the CAT researchers, this could reduce warming by 0.2 to 0.3C by the end of the century.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"css-uf6wea-RichTextComponentWrapper e1xue1i83\" data-component=\"text-block\">\n<div class=\"css-83cqas-RichTextContainer e5tfeyi2\">\n<p>Japan and South Korea have both\u00a0<a class=\"css-yidnqd-InlineLink e1no5rhv0\" href=\"https:\/\/www.carbonbrief.org\/daily-brief\/south-korea-follows-japan-and-china-in-carbon-neutral-pledge\">followed suit<\/a>, pledging to reach net zero by 2050. South Africa and Canada have also announced their own net zero targets.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"css-uf6wea-RichTextComponentWrapper e1xue1i83\" data-component=\"text-block\">\n<div class=\"css-83cqas-RichTextContainer e5tfeyi2\">\n<p>The other significant change is the election of Joe Biden in the US.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"css-18mjolk-ComponentWrapper e1xue1i80\" data-component=\"image-block\">\n<figure class=\"css-1759m9z-StyledFigure e34k3c20\">\n<div class=\"css-kwaqyc-StyledFigureContainer e34k3c22\"><span class=\"css-130qf4a-Placeholder e16icw910\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"css-evoj7m-Image ee0ct7c0 td-animation-stack-type0-1\" src=\"https:\/\/c.files.bbci.co.uk\/16FD4\/production\/_115746149_climate_cn-nc.png\" srcset=\"https:\/\/ichef.bbci.co.uk\/news\/240\/cpsprodpb\/16FD4\/production\/_115746149_climate_cn-nc.png 240w, https:\/\/ichef.bbci.co.uk\/news\/320\/cpsprodpb\/16FD4\/production\/_115746149_climate_cn-nc.png 320w, https:\/\/ichef.bbci.co.uk\/news\/480\/cpsprodpb\/16FD4\/production\/_115746149_climate_cn-nc.png 480w, https:\/\/ichef.bbci.co.uk\/news\/624\/cpsprodpb\/16FD4\/production\/_115746149_climate_cn-nc.png 624w, https:\/\/ichef.bbci.co.uk\/news\/800\/cpsprodpb\/16FD4\/production\/_115746149_climate_cn-nc.png 800w, https:\/\/ichef.bbci.co.uk\/news\/976\/cpsprodpb\/16FD4\/production\/_115746149_climate_cn-nc.png 976w\" alt=\"Infographic\" width=\"2666\" height=\"1875\" \/><\/span><\/div>\n<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"css-uf6wea-RichTextComponentWrapper e1xue1i83\" data-component=\"text-block\">\n<div class=\"css-83cqas-RichTextContainer e5tfeyi2\">\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Tackling climate change is a\u00a0<a class=\"css-yidnqd-InlineLink e1no5rhv0\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bbc.co.uk\/news\/science-environment-54858638\">major part of his agenda<\/a>. He has promised to bring the US to net zero emissions by 2050. That move would reduce global temperatures by 0.1C by 2100.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"css-uf6wea-RichTextComponentWrapper e1xue1i83\" data-component=\"text-block\">\n<div class=\"css-83cqas-RichTextContainer e5tfeyi2\">\n<p>&#8220;We now have north of 50% of global emissions covered by big countries with a zero emissions by mid-century goal,&#8221; said Bill Hare from Climate Analytics, who helped lead the Climate Action Tracker analysis.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"css-uf6wea-RichTextComponentWrapper e1xue1i83\" data-component=\"text-block\">\n<div class=\"css-83cqas-RichTextContainer e5tfeyi2\">\n<p>&#8220;When you add all that up, along with what a whole bunch of other countries are doing, then you move the temperature dial from around 2.7C to really quite close to two degrees.&#8221;<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"css-uf6wea-RichTextComponentWrapper e1xue1i83\" data-component=\"text-block\">\n<div class=\"css-83cqas-RichTextContainer e5tfeyi2\">\n<p>&#8220;It\u2019s still a fair way off from the Paris Agreement target, but it is a really major development,&#8221; he told BBC News.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"css-18mjolk-ComponentWrapper e1xue1i80\" data-component=\"image-block\">\n<figure class=\"css-1759m9z-StyledFigure e34k3c20\">\n<div class=\"css-kwaqyc-StyledFigureContainer e34k3c22\">\n<figure style=\"width: 976px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"css-evoj7m-Image ee0ct7c0 td-animation-stack-type0-1\" src=\"https:\/\/c.files.bbci.co.uk\/3B1F\/production\/_115653151_reurters1.jpg\" alt=\"Biden\" width=\"976\" height=\"549\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">President-elect Joe Biden has selected former US Secretary of State John Kerry to be his climate envoy.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div><figcaption class=\"css-1rnnz6t-StyledFigureCaption e34k3c21\"><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"css-mysbf6-ComponentWrapper-CrossheadComponentWrapper e1xue1i84\" data-component=\"crosshead-block\">\n<h5 class=\"css-1jlqpzd-StyledHeading e1fj1fc10\"><strong>Potential difficulties<\/strong><\/h5>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"css-uf6wea-RichTextComponentWrapper e1xue1i83\" data-component=\"text-block\">\n<div class=\"css-83cqas-RichTextContainer e5tfeyi2\">\n<p>The CAT researchers say they have taken a fairly conservative approach but they readily acknowledge that their optimistic analysis comes with some major caveats.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"css-uf6wea-RichTextComponentWrapper e1xue1i83\" data-component=\"text-block\">\n<div class=\"css-83cqas-RichTextContainer e5tfeyi2\">\n<p>The biggest problem as they see it, is that the near-term plans to cut carbon by 2030 are just not up to the job.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"css-uf6wea-RichTextComponentWrapper e1xue1i83\" data-component=\"text-block\">\n<div class=\"css-83cqas-RichTextContainer e5tfeyi2\">\n<p>&#8220;Countries have not yet adjusted their short-term actions to be on a pathway towards the long-term target,&#8221; said Niklas H\u00f6hne, from the NewClimate Institute, who also works on the Climate Action Tracker.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"css-uf6wea-RichTextComponentWrapper e1xue1i83\" data-component=\"text-block\">\n<div class=\"css-83cqas-RichTextContainer e5tfeyi2\">\n<p>&#8220;Long-term targets are easier, they are far away. But short-term actions are happening right now and they affect citizens, they affect voters. And that\u2019s why this is much more difficult,&#8221; he told BBC News.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"css-18mjolk-ComponentWrapper e1xue1i80\" data-component=\"image-block\">\n<figure class=\"css-1759m9z-StyledFigure e34k3c20\">\n<div class=\"css-kwaqyc-StyledFigureContainer e34k3c22\">\n<figure style=\"width: 976px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"css-evoj7m-Image ee0ct7c0 td-animation-stack-type0-1\" src=\"https:\/\/c.files.bbci.co.uk\/D7C3\/production\/_115653255_reutersgreta.jpg\" alt=\"Greta\" width=\"976\" height=\"549\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Politicians have been under pressure to act on climate change from protestors, including Greta Thunberg.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div><figcaption class=\"css-1rnnz6t-StyledFigureCaption e34k3c21\"><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"css-uf6wea-RichTextComponentWrapper e1xue1i83\" data-component=\"text-block\">\n<div class=\"css-83cqas-RichTextContainer e5tfeyi2\">\n<p>The countries that have signed up to the Paris agreement are expected to lodge new carbon-cutting plans for 2030 by the end of this year.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"css-uf6wea-RichTextComponentWrapper e1xue1i83\" data-component=\"text-block\">\n<div class=\"css-83cqas-RichTextContainer e5tfeyi2\">\n<p>It\u2019s expected that a number will do so, including the UK and the EU.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"css-uf6wea-RichTextComponentWrapper e1xue1i83\" data-component=\"text-block\">\n<div class=\"css-83cqas-RichTextContainer e5tfeyi2\">\n<p>But there are several countries who are still reluctant to set goals, and many poorer nations are still looking to invest in coal.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"css-uf6wea-RichTextComponentWrapper e1xue1i83\" data-component=\"text-block\">\n<div class=\"css-83cqas-RichTextContainer e5tfeyi2\">\n<p>&#8220;There are countries that still remain bad actors, including Saudi Arabia, Brazil, Australia, Russia, and a few others,&#8221; said Bill Hare.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"css-uf6wea-RichTextComponentWrapper e1xue1i83\" data-component=\"text-block\">\n<div class=\"css-83cqas-RichTextContainer e5tfeyi2\">\n<p>&#8220;And we also have a pipeline of coal plants in the region where I\u2019m working now in Asia. It has not collapsed, it has not gone away, so yes, there\u2019s much to be concerned about. And there\u2019s much that can go wrong.&#8221;<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"css-18mjolk-ComponentWrapper e1xue1i80\" data-component=\"image-block\">\n<figure class=\"css-1759m9z-StyledFigure e34k3c20\">\n<div class=\"css-kwaqyc-StyledFigureContainer e34k3c22\">\n<figure style=\"width: 976px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"css-evoj7m-Image ee0ct7c0 td-animation-stack-type0-1\" src=\"https:\/\/c.files.bbci.co.uk\/18181\/production\/_115698689_22278234-fdb5-424b-b478-899c8d9e49be.jpg\" alt=\"Hydrogen train\" width=\"976\" height=\"549\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">A hydrogen-powered train \u2013 the green form of the gas could help decarbonise transport.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div><figcaption class=\"css-1rnnz6t-StyledFigureCaption e34k3c21\"><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"css-mysbf6-ComponentWrapper-CrossheadComponentWrapper e1xue1i84\" data-component=\"crosshead-block\">\n<h5 class=\"css-1jlqpzd-StyledHeading e1fj1fc10\"><strong>What about the response to Covid-19?<\/strong><\/h5>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"css-uf6wea-RichTextComponentWrapper e1xue1i83\" data-component=\"text-block\">\n<div class=\"css-83cqas-RichTextContainer e5tfeyi2\">\n<p>According to observers, the response of countries to the Covid crisis is a huge opportunity to focus their short-term spending on renewable energy and increased decarbonisation.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"css-uf6wea-RichTextComponentWrapper e1xue1i83\" data-component=\"text-block\">\n<div class=\"css-83cqas-RichTextContainer e5tfeyi2\">\n<p><strong>&#8220;The pandemic opened a window to not only get countries to outline their long-term goal, but to actually move onto the right path so that they can actually achieve the long term goal,&#8221; said Dr Maisa Rojas, who is the director of the Center for Climate and Resilience Research at the University of Chile in Santiago.<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"css-uf6wea-RichTextComponentWrapper e1xue1i83\" data-component=\"text-block\">\n<div class=\"css-83cqas-RichTextContainer e5tfeyi2\">\n<p>&#8220;Are we going to harness that opportunity? My impression is that many, including the EU, are harnessing it.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>Read at\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bbc.com\/news\/science-environment-55073169\">BBC<\/a>.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A new analysis, seen by the BBC, suggests the goals of the UN Paris climate agreement are getting &#8220;within reach.&#8221; By Matt McGrath The\u00a0Climate Action Tracker\u00a0group looked at new climate promises from China and other nations, along with the carbon plans of US President-elect Joe Biden. These commitments would mean the rise in world temperatures [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":19302,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[12,25],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.cr2.cl\/eng\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19301"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.cr2.cl\/eng\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.cr2.cl\/eng\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.cr2.cl\/eng\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.cr2.cl\/eng\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=19301"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.cr2.cl\/eng\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19301\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":19305,"href":"https:\/\/www.cr2.cl\/eng\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19301\/revisions\/19305"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.cr2.cl\/eng\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/19302"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.cr2.cl\/eng\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=19301"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.cr2.cl\/eng\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=19301"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.cr2.cl\/eng\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=19301"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}